Variance Oracle

Promised production versus attested production

Post a lab window. Read the factor a pool would use. MQTT does not mint. Chain writes stay mock until a keeper RPC is configured.

Lab

IoT bridge

Lecture desk · ~15 min · Échantillon WePower

Même cas, trois signaux séparés. Rien de fusionné en un seul score.

1. Promise GapIntensité de claim vs vie mesurée
2. ActivityTransferts post-émission & profondeur
3. VariancekWh promis vs attestés (lab)

Brief desk une page

Lab window · source lab · updated 2026-09-27 16:30 UTC · chain write mock · settlement HITL · not production custody

Lab attested / promised: 470,000 / 500,000 Wh
Window fill: 94.0%
Lab health: 94ok
Lab collateral factor: 94.0%
Lab max quote LTV: 47.0%

Envelope 94 · leave-one-out across fill · health · collateral

Pilot brief

Same formula as AurosRiskOracle. A pool at 50% base LTV would cap quote borrow at 47.0% of resource collateral. Circuit open → factor 0. This write is the lab window — chain settlement stays mock until a keeper RPC is configured.

Promise Gap · Activity Index · Energy Lab

How an energy desk reads this

Window fill — attested Wh ÷ promised Wh for this lab period (dated above). Separate from Promise Gap (claim vs market life).
Collateral factor — what a pool would multiply into base LTV. Circuit open (48h silence) → factor 0.
Settlement — human-in-the-loop. Chain write stays mock until a keeper RPC is configured. Forward the pilot brief.

01
Promise
A production curve in kWh, bound to a device or site.
02
Attest
Mosquitto ingest. Payload signed at the gateway. Replay and skew rejected in the bridge.
03
Score
Lab desk posts the window. A keeper would call updateAssetStatus only with an RPC — otherwise the bridge stays in mock mode. Lenders would read collateralFactorWad; no live pool is claimed.

This page writes the lab window (same formula as AurosRiskOracle). MQTT may mirror here. On-chain updateAssetStatus runs only when a keeper RPC exists — otherwise the bridge stays mock. Paid settlement stays HITL. Not a live lending pool.

Promise Gap · Activity · Energy Lab

What does the desk write?

This desk writes the lab window only. Attested watt-hours, gap, health 0–100, collateral factor (0 if the 48-hour silence circuit is open). It does not send a mainnet transaction.

How does a pool use this?

Base LTV 50% times collateralFactorWad. An 80% window yields 40% max quote borrow against resource collateral.

How should an enterprise use this desk?

Read the dated lab window (attested vs promised Wh), note the collateral factor and max quote LTV, then settle with a human. Pair with Promise Gap for claim-vs-life and Activity for market overlays — three unfused signals. Forward /desk for the one-page brief, or /protocol/variance-oracle/brief for Variance-only.

Is this the same as Promise Gap?

Promise Gap compares a listed yield claim to public product activity. Variance is physical kWh on the lab window.

Does MQTT write the chain?

Only if a keeper RPC, signing key, and risk-oracle address are configured. Otherwise the IoT bridge records mock mode and may still post the lab window. Paid settlement stays human-in-the-loop.

Can an industrial meter feed this desk?

Yes, through the same signed MQTT production envelope. A plant gateway can emit AUROS industrial JSON (register → Wh). That is a lab profile, not a certified SCADA stack. Paid settlement stays human-in-the-loop.

Promised production versus attested production

Post a lab window. Read the factor a pool would use. MQTT does not mint. Chain writes stay mock until a keeper RPC is configured.

Lab

IoT bridge

Lecture desk · ~15 min · Échantillon WePower

Même cas, trois signaux séparés. Rien de fusionné en un seul score.

1. Promise GapIntensité de claim vs vie mesurée
2. ActivityTransferts post-émission & profondeur
3. VariancekWh promis vs attestés (lab)

Brief desk une page

Lab window · source lab · updated 2026-09-27 16:30 UTC · chain write mock · settlement HITL · not production custody

Lab attested / promised: 470,000 / 500,000 Wh
Window fill: 94.0%
Lab health: 94ok
Lab collateral factor: 94.0%
Lab max quote LTV: 47.0%

Envelope 94 · leave-one-out across fill · health · collateral

Pilot brief

Promise Gap · Activity Index · Energy Lab

How an energy desk reads this

Window fill — attested Wh ÷ promised Wh for this lab period (dated above). Separate from Promise Gap (claim vs market life).
Collateral factor — what a pool would multiply into base LTV. Circuit open (48h silence) → factor 0.
Settlement — human-in-the-loop. Chain write stays mock until a keeper RPC is configured. Forward the pilot brief.

01
Promise
A production curve in kWh, bound to a device or site.
02
Attest
Mosquitto ingest. Payload signed at the gateway. Replay and skew rejected in the bridge.
03
Score
Lab desk posts the window. A keeper would call updateAssetStatus only with an RPC — otherwise the bridge stays in mock mode. Lenders would read collateralFactorWad; no live pool is claimed.

Promise Gap · Activity · Energy Lab

What does the desk write?

This desk writes the lab window only. Attested watt-hours, gap, health 0–100, collateral factor (0 if the 48-hour silence circuit is open). It does not send a mainnet transaction.

How does a pool use this?

Base LTV 50% times collateralFactorWad. An 80% window yields 40% max quote borrow against resource collateral.

How should an enterprise use this desk?

Is this the same as Promise Gap?

Promise Gap compares a listed yield claim to public product activity. Variance is physical kWh on the lab window.

Does MQTT write the chain?

Only if a keeper RPC, signing key, and risk-oracle address are configured. Otherwise the IoT bridge records mock mode and may still post the lab window. Paid settlement stays human-in-the-loop.

Can an industrial meter feed this desk?

Promised production versus attested production

How an energy desk reads this

Promise

Attest

Score

Promised production versus attested production

How an energy desk reads this

Promise

Attest

Score